A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
